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Why Florida was called early and wrong, and
Much More Important
lessons from the election Ratings, Ratings - The networks' statistical models allow them to project a winner with just 2% of precincts tallied. Early on, Bush was a run away winner, even in Kentucky, a state carried by Clinton/Gore in 96. When the program isn't interesting, you turn off the TV. For this reason, the networks gave Gore Florida with about a 1% margin at the 2% point, but they did not call Ohio for Bush even though Bush had a 6% margin with 4% of Ohio precincts reported at the exact moment they called Florida, according to real time data reported by AP. The networks claim their error had no effect. This is certainly not true. What is true is it is impossible to know for sure what effect the error did have. Both sides have claimed the early call both demoralized their voters and spurred more voters to get to the polls. It probably had both effects, for both sides, but the networks are unlikely to try to measure this, and there is no redress available even if the true effects were known with certainty. The "invisible" institution - More important to recognize is the election shows we have indeed lost the institution that America's Founders said was essential to the survival of our liberties and our republic: a population that agrees about the ideas of right and wrong. The ideas citizens hold about what is right and wrong ultimately determine what rights both the law and social norms recognize and protect. That rights flow from the prohibitions of moral rules and that the critical moral rules are simply whatever a majority of citizens believe is right and wrong is lost wisdom that cannot be too strongly emphasized. If a majority of citizens think blacks should be slaves - or abortion is okay - the law will reflect that opinion. Deeply Divided -The election shows that America is deeply divided on its moral principles. The evidence takes two forms. First, and obvious, is that half of those who voted chose the number two man in the most corrupt and scandal-ridden administration our nation has ever endured. Less obvious is that as Americans have abandoned the Judeo-Christian moral ideas on which our nation was founded their is now a wide and "diverse" range of moral views hel by different groups of citizens. This "mixed bag" of ethical opinions is the reason that third-party candidates are appearing on the ballot in even minor elections. From a republic to a parliamentary democracy - America is the only democracy in the world that is not a parliamentary democracy. Part of our Founders' genius is that they realized what political scientists were unable to prove until just 50 years ago - that "social choice," i.e. voting - can produce irrational results unless choice is restricted to two alternatives selected by simple majority vote. Our two party system reflects the underlying reality of the world, spiritual warfare between good and evil. Our founders and later American politicians up to Lincoln understood that politics simply reflects the stuggle between good and evil that goes on in every area of human endeavor. A two party system allows voters to order candidates along an issue spectrum that reflects Godly moral principles. One choice always ends up more in line with Godly principles, and an electorate that holds those principles will select that option. In this way, the two party system can help preserve moral principles even if those principles are starting to erode. There have always been fringe party candidates on the presidential ballot, but those candidates have never been viewed as viable alternatives. But the two party system also depends on the voters' policy preferences not being too diverse. The more confused voters' preferences are, with different groups holding on to some Godly rules while rejecting others, the two party system breaks down. The two party system becomes a parliamentary system with different blocks holding power in the government at the same time. There is strong evidence in the 2000 election that this is happening in America. Fringe candidates appeared not only on the presidential ballot but on the ballot for virtually every other office that was filled. The bottom line - The bottom line is that the 2000 election reveals 1) a majority of Americans no longer accept the Judeo-Christian values on which America is founded and our freedom depends, and 2) our citizens hold an increasingly incompatible set of values about what is right and wrong. The Good News - the good news is that God has stunningly revealed this fact to us through the results of this election. He has shown us the problem, now it is up to us to work faithfully to fix it. The only way to do this is to commit now to being a tool the Holy Spirit can use to bring our fellow Americans to faith in Christ. We know both from the Bible and from mathematics that it is irrational to follow God's moral rules unless you believe in God. If we want to keep our freedoms we must restore to prominence the one set of ideas that have freed markets and toppled kings. This realization makes the map at CSPAN's election results page into a plan for missionary action. If you live in a Gore state, it is especially important that you start witnessing now. |
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